Tim Harford strana 2 z 2

Gyorsan változó világunkban egyre gyakrabban kerülhetünk olyan helyzetekbe, amelyekben a korábban bevált módszerekkel nem tudunk elég sikeresek lenni. Ilyenkor válik fontossá, hogy képesek vagyunk-e átértékelni eddigi reagálásaink módját, logikáját, tudunk-e régi beidegződéseket meghaladó válaszokat adni az új kihívásokra. Tim Hadford számos olyan izgalmas, megtörtént eseményt tár elénk, amelyben kudarcot vallott a korábbi sikerekre épített rutinunk, mert nem voltunk elég nyitottak az új kihívás okra, és nem voltunk elég rugalmasak az új megoldásokban. A szerző meggyőző erővel mutatja be, hogy az amerikai katonai hadműveletek irányításának kudarcaiban éppúgy, mint a szegénység leküzdéséért tett hiábavaló erőfeszítésekben, az atomerőművek és olajfúrótornyok működési zavarainak elhárításában, legújabban pedig a nemzetközi pénzügyi válságok kezelhetetlenségében hasonlóak voltak a problémák forrásai: a váratlan helyzethez történő rugalmas alkalmazkodással szembeni idegenkedés. "Az alkalmazk odás logikája" segít, hogy megértsük, miért nélkülözhetetlen ma már a sikerhez a kreatív alkalmazkodás, és mit kell tennünk ahhoz, hogy ezt minél jobban elsajátítsuk.

Everything we know about solving the world's problems is wrong. Out: Plans, experts and above all, leaders. In: Adapting - improvise rather than plan; fail, learn, and try again In this groundbreaking new book, Tim Harford shows how the world's most complex and important problems - including terrorism, climate change, poverty, innovation, and the financial crisis - can only be solved from the bottom up by rapid experimenting and adapting. From a spaceport in the Mojave Desert to the street battles of Iraq, from a blazing offshore drilling rig to everyday decisions in our business and personal lives, this is a handbook for surviving - and prospering - in our complex and ever-shifting world.

Ever wondered why the gap between rich and poor nations is so great, or why it's so difficult to get a foot on the property ladder, or where the banks went wrong? This book offers the hidden story behind these and other forces that shape our day-to-day lives, often without our knowing it. 'Lively and witty ...After reading this book a trip to the supermarket is an entirely different experience' The Times

A million readers bought The Undercover Economist to get the lowdown on how economics works on a small scale, in our everyday lives. Since then, economics has become big news. Crises, austerity, riots, bonuses - all are in the headlines all the time. But how does this large-scale economic world really work? What would happen if we cancelled everyone's debt? How do you create a job? Will the BRIC countries take over the world? Asking - among many other things -- what the future holds for the Euro, why the banks are still paying record bonuses and where government borrowing will take us, in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back, Tim Harford returns with his trademark clarity and wit to explain what's really going on - and what it means for us all.

Are there tangible benefits in flossing? Is it wrong to fake orgasms? What does the perfect online dating ad look like? Should we bother doing the ironing? Is it really impossible to buy the perfect Christmas gift? (Other than this book, of course.) Economists might not be the first people you would think of to give you advice on such diverse areas as parenting, the intricacies of etiquette or the dark arts of seduction. But for years bestselling author Tim Harford has been doing just that: answering the most challenging questions in his brilliant column, where he uses the tools of economics to give practical advice about everyday dilemmas, conundrums and concerns. From family rows and the stock market to buying socks or speed dating, you'll find within these pages a witty - and of course rational - explanation for almost everything you ever wanted to know about life.

A million readers bought The Undercover Economist to get the lowdown on how economics works on a small scale, in our everyday lives. Since then, economics has become big news. Crises, austerity, riots, bonuses - all are in the headlines all the time. But how does this large-scale economic world really work? What would happen if we cancelled everyone's debt? How do you create a job? Will the BRIC countries take over the world? Asking - among many other things -- what the future holds for the Euro, why the banks are still paying record bonuses and where government borrowing will take us, in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back, Tim Harford returns with his trademark clarity and wit to explain what's really going on - and what it means for us all.

Szegényebbek vagy gazdagabbak leszünk tíz év múlva? Mit tehet egy kis ország a világgazdaság háborgó tengerén? Milyen a jó gazdaságpolitika? A szakemberek mondják a magukét. A mindennapok embere azonban, még ha akarja is, csak nehezen tudja követni a közgazdászok és a gazdaságpolitikusok magasröptű vitáit. Tim Harford, az oknyomozó közgazdász elhatározta, hogy érthető nyelvre fordítja a gazdasági összefüggéseket. Élvezetes és szórakoztató párbeszédre invitál, hogy rávilágítson a bonyolultnak tűnő gazdasági folyamatokra, különösen azok legújabb pszichológiai vonatkozásaira. Tim Harfordnak a HVG Könyvek gondozásában eddig megjelent kötetei: A leleplezett gazdaság, Az élet rejtett logikája, Az alkalmazkodás logikája.

The urge to tidiness seems to be rooted deep in the human psyche. Many of us feel threatened by anything that is vague, unplanned, scattered around or hard to describe. We find comfort in having a script to rely on, a system to follow, in being able to categorise and file away. We all benefit from tidy organisation - up to a point. A large library needs a reference system. Global trade needs the shipping container. Scientific collaboration needs measurement units. But the forces of tidiness have marched too far. Corporate middle managers and government bureaucrats have long tended to insist that everything must have a label, a number and a logical place in a logical system. Now that they are armed with computers and serial numbers, there is little to hold this tidy-mindedness in check. It's even spilling into our personal lives, as we corral our children into sanitised play areas or entrust our quest for love to the soulless algorithms of dating websites. Order is imposed when chaos would be more productive. Or if not chaos, then ...messiness. The trouble with tidiness is that, in excess, it becomes rigid, fragile and sterile. In Messy, Tim Harford reveals how qualities we value more than ever - responsiveness, resilience and creativity - simply cannot be disentangled from the messy soil that produces them. This, then, is a book about the benefits of being messy: messy in our private lives; messy in the office, with piles of paper on the desk and unread spreadsheets; messy in the recording studio, the laboratory or in preparing for an important presentation; and messy in our approach to business, politics and economics, leaving things vague, diverse and uncomfortably made-up-on-the-spot. It's time to rediscover the benefits of a little mess.

Fifty Inventions that Shaped the Modern Economy paints the epic picture of economic change in an intimate way, by telling the stories of tools and ideas that had far-reaching and unexpected consequences.

Based on the series produced for the BBC World Service Who thought up paper money? How did the contraceptive pill change the face of the legal profession? Why was the horse collar as important for human progress as the steam engine? How did the humble spreadsheet turn the world of finance upside-down? The world economy defies comprehension. A continuously-changing system of immense complexity, it offers over ten billion distinct products and services, doubles in size every fifteen years, and links almost every one of the planet's seven billion people. It delivers astonishing luxury to hundreds of millions. It also leaves hundreds of millions behind, puts tremendous strains on the ecosystem, and has an alarming habit of stalling. Nobody is in charge of it. Indeed, no individual understands more than a fraction of what's going on. How can we make sense of this bewildering system on which our lives depend? From the tally-stick to Bitcoin, the canal lock to the jumbo jet, each invention in Tim Harford's fascinating new book has its own curious, surprising and memorable story, a vignette against a grand backdrop. Step by step, readers will start to understand where we are, how we got here, and where we might be going next. Hidden connections will be laid bare: how the barcode undermined family corner shops; why the gramophone widened inequality; how barbed wire shaped America. We'll meet the characters who developed some of these inventions, profited from them, or were ruined by them. We'll trace the economic principles that help to explain their transformative effects. And we'll ask what lessons we can learn to make wise use of future inventions, in a world where the pace of innovation will only accelerate.

Hogyan változtatta meg a fogamzásgátló tabletta a jogász szakmát? Miként tette tönkre a vonalkód a családi kisboltokat? Miért növelte az egyenlőtlenséget a gramofon? Hogyan formálta át Amerikát a szöges drót? A világ gazdasága bonyolult, folyamatosan változó rendszer - 10 milliárd különböző termékkel és szolgáltatással, 15 évente megkétszereződik, és összeköti a Föld 7 milliárd lakóját. Alakulásától függően százmilliók megdöbbentő luxusban élnek, százmilliókkal viszont nem törődik. Óriási mértékben terheli meg az ökoszisztémát és vészjelzésként is működik. Senki nem felel érte. Ráadásul valójában mindenki csak egy kis részletét értheti a történéseknek, pedig az életünk függ tőlük. Tim Harford, az oknyomozó írásairól ismert közgazdasági újságíró lebilincselő könyvében rejtett összefüggéseket leplez le. A rováspálcától a vonalkódig, a betontól az ékírásig 50 izgalmas találmányt mutat be meglepő és emlékezetes történetekkel. Lépésről lépésre haladva egyszer csak összeáll a kép: hol vagyunk, hogyan jutottunk ide, és merre indulhatunk tovább. Végül könnyen levonhatjuk a tanulságokat a jövőbeli találmányok bölcs felhasználására vonatkozóan az egyre gyorsuló innovációk világában. Tim Harford a The Financial Times vezető újságírója, a BBC Radio 4 More or Less című műsorának vezetője. Az Alkotó rendetlenség, Az alkalmazkodás logikája, Az élet rejtett logikája és Az oknyomozó közgazdász szerzője. Harford vendégoktató az oxfordi Nuffield College-ban, tiszteletbeli tagja a Királyi Statisztikai Társaságnak. 2014-ben az év közgazdasági kommentátora díjra jelölték. 2015-ben és 2016-ban is nyert gazdasági újságírásért díjakat. Nézeteit TED-előadásban is összefoglalta a Sydney-i Operaházban.

The urge to tidiness seems to be rooted deep in the human psyche. Many of us feel threatened by anything that is vague, unplanned, scattered around or hard to describe. We find comfort in having a script to rely on, a system to follow, in being able to categorise and file away. We all benefit from tidy organisation - up to a point. A large library needs a reference system. Global trade needs the shipping container. Scientific collaboration needs measurement units. But the forces of tidiness have marched too far. Corporate middle managers and government bureaucrats have long tended to insist that everything must have a label, a number and a logical place in a logical system. Now that they are armed with computers and serial numbers, there is little to hold this tidy-mindedness in check. It's even spilling into our personal lives, as we corral our children into sanitised play areas or entrust our quest for love to the soulless algorithms of dating websites. Order is imposed when chaos would be more productive. Or if not chaos, then . . . messiness. The trouble with tidiness is that, in excess, it becomes rigid, fragile and sterile. In Messy, Tim Harford reveals how qualities we value more than ever - responsiveness, resilience and creativity - simply cannot be disentangled from the messy soil that produces them. This, then, is a book about the benefits of being messy: messy in our private lives; messy in the office, with piles of paper on the desk and unread spreadsheets; messy in the recording studio, the laboratory or in preparing for an important presentation; and messy in our approach to business, politics and economics, leaving things vague, diverse and uncomfortably made-up-on-the-spot. It's time to rediscover the benefits of a little mess.

n Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy, the revolutionary, acclaimed book, radio series and podcast, bestselling economist Tim Harford introduced us to a selection of fifty radical inventions that changed the world. Now, in this new book, Harford once again brings us an array of remarkable, memorable, curious and often unexpected 'things' - inventions that teach us lessons by turns intimate and sweeping about the complex world economy we live in today. From the brick, blockchain and the bicycle to fire, the factory and fundraising, and from solar PV and the pencil to the postage stamp, this brilliant and enlightening collection resonates, fascinates and stimulates. It is a wonderful blend of insight and inspiration from one of Britain's finest non-fiction storytellers.

'If you aren't in love with stats before reading this book, you will be by the time you're done. Powerful, persuasive, and in these truth-defying times, indispensable' Caroline Criado Perez, author of Invisible Women 'Fabulously readable, lucid, witty and authoritative... Every politician and journalist should be made to read this book, but everyone else will get so much pleasure and draw so much strength from the joyful way it dispels the clouds of deceit and delusion' Stephen Fry When was the last time you read a grand statement, accompanied by a large number, and wondered whether it could really be true? Statistics are vital in helping us tell stories - we see them in the papers, on social media, and we hear them used in everyday conversation - and yet we doubt them more than ever. But numbers - in the right hands - have the power to change the world for the better. Contrary to popular belief, good statistics are not a trick, although they are a kind of magic. Good statistics are not smoke and mirrors; in fact, they help us see more clearly. Good statistics are like a telescope for an astronomer, a microscope for a bacteriologist, or an X-ray for a radiologist. If we are willing to let them, good statistics help us see things about the world around us and about ourselves - both large and small - that we would not be able to see in any other way. In How to Make the World Add Up, Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and presenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less'. He takes us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation, bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers worthwhile. Harford's characters range from the art forger who conned the Nazis to the stripper who fell in love with the most powerful congressman in Washington, to famous data detectives such as John Maynard Keynes, Daniel Kahneman and Florence Nightingale. He reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence, curiosity and a healthy level of scepticism. Using ten simple rules for understanding numbers - plus one golden rule - this extraordinarily insightful book shows how if we keep our wits about us, thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented, we can look around us and see with crystal clarity how the world adds up.